The Bottom Line: Violent crime on O‘ahu is currently: mostly lower than average (except for aggravated assault).
Each month, we analyze the crime data provided publicly by the Honolulu Police Department to understand crime trends and put the headlines in perspective. Currently, for each category of violent crime, we compare the number of crimes last month to the month before and the same month in the previous year. We do a simple statistical analysis to determine whether the year-over-year or month-to-month variation is out of the norm or expected variation. Additionally, we are continuing to offer some longer-term analyses using more data, not just our standard quick assessment. Thanks to our research assistants, we are able to using data going back to January 2023, so we can say more about the distribution of crime rates within each category and also speak to longer-term trends. Finally, we present graphs of monthly amounts of each type of violent crime so we can visually see where the most recent month’s numbers fall relative to past months’ amounts.
If this is your first visit to the Crime Lab, check out our primer on understanding crime rates.
The new data for this post were collected by research assistants Emma Burnkrant and Jesus Romero.
Aggravated Assault: Up
Quick Assessment: There were 99 aggravated assaults in February 2025. This is slightly up from January 2025 when there were 82. It is also up from the count last February when there were 69.
Is this change significant? Actually, some of them. The increase from prior years is statistically significant, but the month-to-month increase is not statistically significant.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of assaults in February is above the average monthly count for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. However, it is our first above-average count in four months (after three straight months of below-average counts of aggravated assaults for both years), suggesting this is not yet part of a trend.
Murder and Non-Negligent Homicide: Mostly Stable
Quick Assessment: There was 1 homicide in February 2025. This is up slightly from January 2025 when there were no homicides. It is down slightly from last February when there were 3.
Is this change significant? No. Neither the the month-to-month increase nor the year-over-year drop are statistically significant, meaning they are within expected variation for its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of homicides in February is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. It is the second month of below-average counts of homicide for both years.
Robbery: Down but Stable
Quick Assessment: There were 33 robberies in February 2025. This is down from January 2025 when there were 38. It is also down from the number from last February when there were 43.
Is this change significant? Actually, no. Neither the month-to-month decrease nor the year-over-year decrease are statistically significant, meaning February’s number is within the expected variation for its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of robberies in February is well below the average number for both 2023 and 2024; it is so low that it is actually statistically significant–that is, it is beyond the expected or normal range based on numbers from 2023 and 2024. It is the third month of below-average counts of aggravated assaults for both years, so we are continuing to see a wonderful downward trend since a peak in October.
Sexual Assault: Down
Quick Assessment: There were 40 sexual assaults in February 2025. This is down from January 2025 when there were 61. It is also down from the number last February when there were 84.
Is this change significant? Actually, yes. Both the month-to-month decrease and the year-over-year decrease are statistically significant, meaning January’s number is lower than the expected variation for its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of sex offenses in February is well below the average number for both 2023 and 2024; it is so low that it is actually statistically significant–that is, it is beyond the expected or normal range. It is also the second month of below-average numbers.
Final Assessment
This month’s assessment is that violent crime on O‘ahu is mostly lower than average (except for aggravated assault). That is, for homicide, robbery, and sex offenses, we’re seeing fewer crimes than we have in the last two-plus years. Robbery and sex offenses are significantly lower than prior years’ monthly averages. We’re also seeing short-term declines in those crimes as well. However, aggravated assault breaks that trend, showing an increase after several months of decline.
The Hawaii Crime Lab 