The Bottom Line: Violent crime on O‘ahu is currently: mostly down.
Each month, we analyze the crime data provided publicly by the Honolulu Police Department to understand crime trends and put the headlines in perspective. Currently, for each category of violent crime, we compare the number of crimes last month to the month before and the same month in the previous year. We do a simple statistical analysis to determine whether the year-to-year or month-to-month variation is out of the norm or expected variation. Additionally, we are continuing to offer some longer-term analyses using more data, not just our standard quick assessment. Thanks to our research assistants, we are able to using data going back to January 2023, so we can say more about the distribution of crime rates within each category and also speak to longer-term trends. Finally, we present graphs of monthly amounts of each type of violent crime for the last 12 months so we can visually see where the most recent month’s numbers fall relative to past months’ counts.
If this is your first visit to the Crime Lab, check out our primer on understanding crime rates.
The new data for this post were collected by research assistants Emma Burnkrant and Jesus Romero.
Aggravated Assault: Down
Quick Assessment: There were 70 aggravated assaults in March 2025. This is down from February 2025 when there were 98. It is also down from the count last March when there were 79.
Is this change significant? Actually, some of them. The decrease from last month is statistically significant, but decrease from last year is not statistically significant.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of assaults in March is below the average monthly count for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range.
Murder and Non-Negligent Homicide: Down
Quick Assessment: There were no homicides in March 2025. This is down slightly from February 2025 when there was 1 homicide. It is down a lot from last March when there were 6 (an especially high-count month).
Is this change significant? The month-to-month decrease is not significant; while the drop from last year is statistically significant, meaning not within expected variation for its comparison months, because March 2025 was a statistically significantly high count month, the comparison is a bit unfair.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of homicides in March is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. It is the third month of below-average counts of homicide for both years.
Robbery: Up
Quick Assessment: There were 59 robberies in March 2025. This is up from February 2025 when there were 33. It is also up from the number from last March when there were 36.
Is this change significant? Actually, yes. Both the month-to-month increase nor the year-to-year increase are statistically significant, meaning March’s number is beyond the expected variation for its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of robberies in March is also above the average number for both 2023 and 2024; but it is not statistically significantly different–that is, it is within the expected or normal range based on numbers from 2023 and 2024. It is the first above-average month after three months of below-average counts of robbery for both years, so we will need to wait to see if March marks a new trend.
Sexual Assault: Mixed
Quick Assessment: There were 54 sexual assaults in March 2025. This is up from February 2025 when there were 42. It is down from the number last March when there were 83.
Is this change significant? Actually, some of them. The the month-to-month increase is not significant, but and the year-to-year decrease is statistically significant, meaning March’s number is lower than the expected variation when compared to last March (but not when compared to this February).
Longer-term Assessment: The number of sex offenses in March is still well below the average number for both 2023 and 2024; however, it is not so low that it is statistically significant–that is, it is just barely within the expected or normal range. It is also the third month of below-average numbers.
Final Assessment
This month’s assessment is that violent crime on O‘ahu is mostly down and lower than average (except for robbery). That is, for aggravated assault, homicide, and sex offenses, we’re seeing fewer crimes than we have in the last two-plus years. The increase in robbery is new so we’ll be keeping an eye on next month’s counts to see if there is a new trend forming or if this was just a blip.
The Hawaii Crime Lab 