The Bottom Line: Violent crime on O‘ahu is currently: mostly down.
Each month, we analyze the crime data provided publicly by the Honolulu Police Department to understand crime trends and put the headlines in perspective. Currently, for each category of violent crime, we compare the number of crimes last month to the month before and the same month in the previous year. We do a simple statistical analysis to determine whether the year-to-year or month-to-month variation is out of the norm or expected variation. Additionally, we are continuing to offer some longer-term analyses using more data, not just our standard quick assessment. Thanks to our research assistants, we are able to using data going back to January 2023, so we can say more about the distribution of crime rates within each category and also speak to longer-term trends. Finally, we present graphs of monthly amounts of each type of violent crime for the last 12 months so we can visually see where the most recent month’s numbers fall relative to past months’ counts.
If this is your first visit to the Crime Lab, check out our primer on understanding crime rates.
The new data for this post were collected by research assistants Emma Burnkrant and Jesus Romero.
Aggravated Assault: Up, but not significantly so
Quick Assessment: There were 80 aggravated assaults in April 2025. This is up from March 2025 when there were 70. It is also up from the count last April when there were 67.
Is this change significant? No. Neither the increase from last month nor last year is statistically significant, meaning this change is within the expected fluctuation.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of assaults in April is below the average monthly count for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. Overall, the number of aggravated assaults has been trending down, despite some spikes in October 2024 and February 2025. However, this trend is not statistically significant, meaning it could still be chance variation.
Murder and Non-Negligent Homicide: Down, but not significantly so
Quick Assessment: There were no homicides in April 2025. This is the same as March 2025 when there were no homicides. It is down slightly from last April when there was 1 homicide.
Is this change significant? No. Since the month-to-month count is the same, it is not significantly different. Likewise, the small drop from last year is not significant, meaning it is within expected variation.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of homicides in April is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. It is the fourth month of below-average counts of homicide for both years. Overall, the number of homicides has been trending down, despite some spikes in August and July 2024. However, this trend is not statistically significant, meaning it could still be chance variation.
Robbery: Down, but not significantly so
Quick Assessment: There were 46 robberies in April 2025. This is down from March 2025 when there were 59. It is very slightly up from the number from last April when there were 45.
Is this change significant? No. Neither the month-to-month decrease nor the year-to-year increase are statistically significant, meaning April’s count is within the expected variation for its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of robberies in April is also below the average number for both 2023 and 2024; but it is not statistically significantly different–that is, it is within the expected or normal range based on numbers from 2023 and 2024. Excepting last month, we’ve had four months of below-average counts. Last month, we saw a big increase up, but it does not appear to demarcate a new trend. Overall, the number of robberies has been trending down, despite some spikes in October 2024 and March 2025. However, this trend is not statistically significant, meaning it could still be chance variation.
Sexual Assault: Down, but not significantly so
Quick Assessment: There were 48 sexual assaults in April 2025. This is down from March 2025 when there were 54. It is also down from the number last April when there were 60.
Is this change significant? No. Neither the month-to-month decrease nor the year-to-year decrease is statistically significant, meaning April’s number is within the expected variation when compared to its comparison months.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of sex offenses in April is still well below the average number for both 2023 and 2024; however, it is not so low that it is statistically significant–that is, it is just barely within the expected or normal range. It is also the fourth month of below-average numbers. Overall, the number of sex offenses has been trending down, despite some high-count months for much of last year. This trend is just barely not statistically significant, meaning the trend is not consistent with random variation.
Final Assessment
This month’s assessment is that violent crime on O‘ahu is mostly down and lower than average. While we’re still seeing trends that are mostly within expected variation, we’re generally seeing fewer crimes than we have in the last two-plus years.
The Hawaii Crime Lab 