The Bottom Line: Violent crime on O‘ahu is currently: mostly down but stable.
Each month, we analyze the crime data provided publicly by the Honolulu Police Department to understand crime trends and put the headlines in perspective. Currently, for each category of violent crime, we compare the number of crimes last month to the month before and the same month in the previous year. We do a simple statistical analysis to determine whether the year-over-year or month-to-month variation is out of the norm or expected variation.
Additionally, we are continuing to offer some longer-term analyses using more data, not just our standard quick assessment. Thanks to our research assistants, we are able to using data going back to January 2023, so we can say more about the distribution of crime rates within each category and also speak to longer-term trends. One caveat to these analyses is we use the numbers we have reported on our blog, which rely on the HPD numbers reported at the time when we wrote each post; consequently, our numbers are frozen from the time of the blog post whereas the HPD numbers fluctuate slightly as they are updated. As noted in our October post, we decided that rather than updating all of our numbers each month, we will use the previously posted numbers; while this results in the numbers being off typically by a few counts (about 1-6), it should not affect the statistical significance in most categories.
If this is your first visit to the Crime Lab, check out our primer on understanding crime rates.
The updated data for this post were collected by research assistant Emma Burnkrant.
Aggravated Assault: Stable
Quick Assessment: There were 81 aggravated assaults in January 2025. This is down from January 2024 when there were 106. It is slightly up from the number in December 2024 when there were 77.
Is this change significant? Actually, some of them. The year-over-year decrease is statistically significant, but the month-to-month increase is not statistically significant.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of assaults in January is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. However, it is the third straight month of below-average counts of aggravated assaults for both years.
Murder and Non-Negligent Homicide: Down but Stable
Quick Assessment: There were 0 homicides in January 2025. This is down slightly from January 2024 when there were 2. It is also down slightly from December 2024 when there were also 2.
Is this change significant? No. Neither the year-over-year drop nor the month-to-month drop are statistically significant, meaning they are within expected variation.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of homicides in January is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. It is the fifth straight month of below-average counts of aggravated assaults for both years.
Robbery: Down but Stable
Quick Assessment: There were 38 robberies in January 2025. This is down from January 2024 when there were 48. It is also down from the number in December 2024 when there were (again) 48.
Is this change significant? Actually, no. Neither the year-over-year decrease nor the month-to-month decrease are statistically significant, meaning January’s number is within the expected variation.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of robberies in January is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. It is the second month of below-average counts of aggravated assaults for both years and we see a wonderful downward trend since a peak in October.
Sexual Assault: Down but Stable
Quick Assessment: There were 61 sexual assaults in January 2025. This is down slightly from January 2024 when there were 63. It is also down from the number in December 2024 when there were 74.
Is this change significant? Actually, no. Neither the year-over-year decrease nor the month-to-month decrease are statistically significant, meaning January’s number is within the expected variation.
Longer-term Assessment: The number of sex offenses in January is below the average number for both 2023 and 2024, but it is within the expected or normal range. There is no clear trend in recent months as the counts have fluctuated just above and below average.
Next Steps
This initial post gives a quick overview of the crime counts in each of the four major violent crimes reported by the HPD on their website. In a followup post, we will present this information in more visually useful ways. At the Crime Lab, our goal is to provide information quickly, so more sophisticated steps must wait.
Final Assessment
This month’s assessment is that violent crime on O‘ahu is mostly down but stable. That is, most of the counts are down, but they are generally not statistically significant. That said, we do see some downward trends and consistently below numbers—especially for robbery, homicide, and aggravated assault.
The Hawaii Crime Lab 